- 2015 – 2016 correction was allowed and c. banks react with various stimulus pledges
- 2016 June post-Brexit correction was short-lived and stopped before the “true” damage has been priced in
- Our concern is that market was stimulated to the current elevated condition that risk the same inevitable drop
- It is perhaps c.banks interest has not been met – surprised by the Exit vote and went to panic mode to shore up global equity
- The simple analogy is to see c.banks as a drunkard dude in the bar-levitating and enjoying the highs but soon going nowhere before the puking begins
Stages of the Global Equity Market
- Drinking higher (Baby is the market) (Beer is the stimulus)
It has impulsive moves, irrational at times but financial media has found ways to justify the run higher despite knowing whatever it was jabbing was pure BS.
- Drinking towards one direction
The market is drunk but it is heading straight for heaven but the fundamental for heading higher means it is not thinking straight after all.
- Making sense of the inevitable results
After it peaked at its high, the process of going lower takes time.
- Final stage of a drunkard
Sometimes, too much of the good stuff given by c.banks have its consequences.
The next worry is as follows:
- if drinking is no longer fun or working – what other tools does c.banks have?
- does c.banks have more tools after exposing itself to jump in too quickly during Brexit vote?
- how will it react if the market pukes?
Disclaimer: NO BABY OR INDIVIDUALS WERE HURT OR DRUNK WHILE WRITING THIS ARTICLE
- Policymakers to remain largely dovish and uncertain on the timeline for a minimal rate hike
- Confidence remain low and Brexit will be the topic used to suggest that a rate hike is not imminent
- Optimistically suggest and forecast better numbers ahead – maintain inflation outlook and maintain the status quo that everything is “as awesome as it gets”
- Perhaps a hawkish remark could turn the market upside down – a September rate hike could trigger market reaction
- Overwhelming expectation of a large stimulus package 10t? 20t or 30t – Further clarification needed
- Market expects something from the BOJ – otherwise a potential tantrum could happen
- USD/YEN on the agenda – helicopter money will not happen for now but will be lightly mentioned
- Revision on inflation and growth target
- Waiting for lift-off – currency weakness could be their main priority
Gold/Silver Ratio Weekly
Platinum 4 hour
Counting Down To Nothing
Keep Your Powder Dry
Guaranteed Stop Recommended
Expect Fierce Volatility
Dollar Index Weekly
Alternative USD/JPY Weekly
- Looking to taking longs but with stops
- On a breakout, will wait for retest to ride the trend
- Will be watching this – no trade as we head into 23rd June
- Above 2050 bullish runs in-tact and expect more range trading
- Buy zone 2602 for bounce higher
- Approaching key support zones – see blue line as potential rebound zone
Crude Oil Weekly
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