Expect The Unexpected – FOMC & BOJ

FOMC

  • Policymakers to remain largely dovish and uncertain on the timeline for a minimal rate hike
  • Confidence remain low and Brexit will be the topic used to suggest that a rate hike is not imminent
  • Optimistically suggest and forecast better numbers ahead – maintain inflation outlook and maintain the status quo that everything is “as awesome as it gets”
  • Perhaps a hawkish remark could turn the market upside down – a September rate hike could trigger market reaction

BOJ

  • Overwhelming expectation of a large stimulus package 10t? 20t or 30t – Further clarification needed
  • Market expects something from the BOJ – otherwise a potential tantrum could happen
  • USD/YEN on the agenda – helicopter money will not happen for now but will be lightly mentioned
  • Revision on inflation and growth target
  • Waiting for lift-off – currency weakness could be their main priority

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