TBT – Precious Metal Review

Previous post from TBT – Trade Ideas – Yellen Dependant remains 

Here are some trade ideas as we head into Janet Yellen speech and this is valid for the week prior to FOMC meeting.

  1. Buy the pullback to $1223-1233 and aim for $1263 (stops at $1220)
  2. Sell and fade the rally at $1266-1276 and aim for $1226 (stops at $1280)

Please note this is NOT a trading service – just ideas.

Dollar Daily

  • Trying to bottom here
  • If fail to bounce, a retest of 76.4 or 88.6 is the last line of defence
  • If it reaches that level, we look for RSI to confirm the end of the selling pressure
  • Could bounce to 20 DMA and if it break and stay above – we envisage trend reversal for higher dollar
  • June rate hike out of the question – July is data dependent but Summer Doldrum expect raft of bad data?

Gold Daily

  • Complete wave 5 corrective move?
  • Will we start the move lower? Rejection off the favoured level was not strong – noteworthy
  • Risk to the upside is the breach towards the top Bollinger Band for a short

Silver Daily

  • The chart does not imply overbought or bearish at all
  • Dip buying came in to rescue the bull
  • Risk to the upside further – perhaps 18.50 then we can consider RSI div
  • Remains bullish for now
  • See ratio below which confirms this move

Gold/Silver Ratio

  • The daily chart count for a 5 waves move lower is not complete – we are in the final phase
  • This support higher silver prices

Platinum Daily

  • Platinum rejected off the 20 DMA – only a close above will allow higher prices
  • Top Bollinger Band is converging – may limit upside – expect overhead supply there
  • A potential AB=CD formation – a break below the magenta line may confirm the move
  • Gold/Platinum ratio remains supportive for platinum to trade lower but need to watch it with caution

Gold/Platinum Ratio

Palladium Daily

  • Needless to say much but Palladium can be volatile at times
  • Upside risk is the target to the long term DTL (dark blue line)
  • Move lower seems possible – allow prices to retest previous support or even make a new low at 445 level


  • Further dollar weakness is possible – need a key reversal candle on the weekly chart to signal the end of precious metal runs 
  • Dollar holds the key – a reversal will allow shorts to scale in 
  • Otherwise, risk of global equity rout could remain supportive for precious metal prices – certainly worth watching 
  • Slightly bearish gold due to ratio
  • Silver has rooms higher but will be on the lookout for divergence 
  • Platinum unclear
  • Palladium next rally is another sell opp 



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