An up to date look at the gyration in prices and exploring potential setups. Please take note this is not a recommendation or trading service. Detailed setup available for specific clientele.
- An upbeat economic data out of China as expected in our previous post. Our outlook on Q2 is to see better numbers due to extra stimulus
- However, is this a sustainable or a one off stimulus inducement?
- Ongoing risks with regards to China policy to transition from manufacturing to service led economy – will we see more turbulent ahead with job cuts in steel and deep cut backs?
- Oil price rebounds and perhaps bottoming phase in Q2 is a possibility if there are significant production cut
- Q2 uncertainty also highlighted political uncertainty in Brazil – will we see this as a black swan event?
- Emerging markets are benefiting from the lower dollar – is this a dead cat bounce in EM currencies?
- Today NFP data could shed more lights if it justify Miss Yellen dovish stance but it is clear that monetary policy will remain accommodative for now
- Are we about to see commodities rout returning in Q2? Asset diversification since Q1 market turmoil may have see fund allocation shifted but is this about to reverse?
- Will we see the recent central banks policies blow up in their own face?
- there are rooms for the dollar to head lower but there are growing signs that a reversal is due or at least some reprice before another shift lower
Dollar Index Daily
- if commodities rout start all over again, we fear equities are in for a run lower
- Every chart seems to suggest that the dead cat bounce is over but most commodities are at least bottoming with a medium to long term prospect of a IHS