Welcome Q2 – Outlook

roller-coaster

An up to date look at the gyration in prices and exploring potential setups. Please take note this is not a recommendation or trading service. Detailed setup available for specific clientele.

  • An upbeat economic data out of China as expected in our previous post. Our outlook on Q2 is to see better numbers due to extra stimulus
  • However, is this a sustainable or a one off stimulus inducement?
  • Ongoing risks with regards to China policy to transition from manufacturing to service led economy – will we see more turbulent ahead with job cuts in steel and deep cut backs?
  • Oil price rebounds and perhaps bottoming phase in Q2 is a possibility if there are significant production cut
  • Q2 uncertainty also highlighted political uncertainty in Brazil – will we see this as a black swan event?
  • Emerging markets are benefiting from the lower dollar – is this a dead cat bounce in EM currencies?
  • Today NFP data could shed more lights if it justify Miss Yellen dovish stance but it is clear that monetary policy will remain accommodative for now
  • Are we about to see commodities rout returning in Q2? Asset diversification since Q1 market turmoil may have see fund allocation shifted but is this about to reverse?
  • Will we see the recent central banks policies blow up in their own face?

Currencies 

  • there are rooms for the dollar to head lower but there are growing signs that a reversal is due or at least some reprice before another shift lower

Dollar Index Daily

USD/YEN Daily

EUR/USD Daily

GBP/USD Daily

AUS/USD Daily

NZD/USD Daily

EUR/GBP Daily

Indices 

  • if commodities rout start all over again, we fear equities are in for a run lower

FTSE Daily

CAC40 Daily

STOXX Daily

SPX Daily

VIX Daily

Commodities 

  • Every chart seems to suggest that the dead cat bounce is over but most commodities are at least bottoming with a medium to long term prospect of a IHS

Platinum Daily

Copper Daily

Oil Daily

Silver Daily

 

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