Dollar Bleeds – Safe Haven Trade Relentless

commodities bear market

An up to date look at the gyration in prices and exploring potential setups. Please take note this is not a recommendation or trading service. Detailed setup available for specific clientele.

  • Amid overstretched longs in ETF and Speculative longs, prices continue to track higher
  • Fundamental picture have shifted but recent price reaction seems to have exaggerated
  •  Equity roared higher – failed DOHA talk proved feeble compared to Kuwait strike
  • Dollar index are having the worse trading start
  • VIX index pummeled as everything is a lot rosier despite poor earning seasons

Dollar Index – Daily

USD/JPY – Daily

GBP/USD – Daily

EUR/USD – Daily

AUS/USD – Daily

NZD/USD – Daily

USD/CAD – Daily

Indices 

SPX – Daily

FTSE – Daily

CAC40 – Daily

STOXX – Daily

DAX – Daily

VIX – Daily

Commodities 

Platinum – Daily

Copper – Daily

Oil – Daily

Silver – Daily

Gold/Silver Ratio

It’s all about Doha – Or is it?

crude oil.jpg

An up to date look at the gyration in prices and exploring potential setups. Please take note this is not a recommendation or trading service. Detailed setup available for specific clientele.

Dollar Index – Daily

USD/JPY – Daily

GBP/USD – Daily

EUR/USD – Daily

AUS/USD – Daily

NZD/USD – Daily

USD/CAD – Daily

Indices 

SPX – Daily

FTSE – Daily

STOXX – Daily

CAC40 – Daily

DAX – Daily

VIX – Daily

Commodities 

Platinum – Daily

Copper – Daily

Oil – Daily

Silver – Daily

 

 

 

Is Gold Becoming The Next TINA?

An up to date look at the gyration in prices and exploring potential setups. Please take note this is not a recommendation or trading service. Detailed setup available for specific clientele.

take profit

TINA – There Is No Alternative – the abbreviation that is still used to describe how investors were piling in to an assets due to the lack of yield opportunities elsewhere and alternative for them to park their cash/wealth.

  • This week its going to be all about the dollar, yen and oil prices
  • Equity market continues to play ping pong depending on news from Fed speakers
  • Political uncertainty across France, Italy and Greece shoring up again albeit under control
  • China economic data showing some encouraging numbers but all of there are not organic growth
  • Earning seasons but buybacks are at the highest – where are real earnings?
  • Strong Yen could implicate earnings on Japanese exporting companies in the near future
  • VIX rollover next week

Currencies 

Dollar Index – Daily

USD/JPY – Daily

EUR/USD – Daily

GBP/USD – Daily

AUS/USD – Daily

NZD/USD – Daily

USD/CAD – Daily

 

Indices 

SPX – Daily

FTSE – Daily

CAC40 – Daily

STOXX – Daily

VIX – Daily

Commodities

Platinum – Daily

Copper – Daily

Oil – Daily

Panama Papers – Equities Slide

stock market.jpg

An up to date look at the gyration in prices and exploring potential setups. Please take note this is not a recommendation or trading service. Detailed setup available for specific clientele.

  • China resume trading after Monday Ching -Ming holiday
  • Risk off sentiment returns – Oil off and under pressure
  • USD weakness – Yen strengthen while equities run out of steam
  • However, dollar index could force some correction ahead of FOMC statement
  • Safe haven buying returns as market volatility picks up (front running a dovish FOMC statement?)

Currencies 

Dollar Index Daily

USD/JPY Daily

EUR/USD Daily

GBP/USD Daily

AUS/USD Daily

NZD/USD Daily

Indices

FTSE Daily

CAC40 Daily

STOXX Daily

SPX Daily

DAX Daily

VIX Daily

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Commodities 

Platinum Daily

Copper Daily

Oil Daily

Silver Daily

 

Oil – A Political Toy

funny oil

  • Market sentiment has been fickle but news on the ground remain bullish that this turn up is for good
  • Others see this as a short term Q1 dead cat bounce due to on-going view for a 17th April meeting
  • Short covering rally but is this the bottom here?
  • Recent pain trade is to try and short oil while risk reward remain skewed for a retest lower
  • Catalyst for higher prices remain either a severe production cut or a potential geo-political instability

 

 

Welcome Q2 – Outlook

roller-coaster

An up to date look at the gyration in prices and exploring potential setups. Please take note this is not a recommendation or trading service. Detailed setup available for specific clientele.

  • An upbeat economic data out of China as expected in our previous post. Our outlook on Q2 is to see better numbers due to extra stimulus
  • However, is this a sustainable or a one off stimulus inducement?
  • Ongoing risks with regards to China policy to transition from manufacturing to service led economy – will we see more turbulent ahead with job cuts in steel and deep cut backs?
  • Oil price rebounds and perhaps bottoming phase in Q2 is a possibility if there are significant production cut
  • Q2 uncertainty also highlighted political uncertainty in Brazil – will we see this as a black swan event?
  • Emerging markets are benefiting from the lower dollar – is this a dead cat bounce in EM currencies?
  • Today NFP data could shed more lights if it justify Miss Yellen dovish stance but it is clear that monetary policy will remain accommodative for now
  • Are we about to see commodities rout returning in Q2? Asset diversification since Q1 market turmoil may have see fund allocation shifted but is this about to reverse?
  • Will we see the recent central banks policies blow up in their own face?

Currencies 

  • there are rooms for the dollar to head lower but there are growing signs that a reversal is due or at least some reprice before another shift lower

Dollar Index Daily

USD/YEN Daily

EUR/USD Daily

GBP/USD Daily

AUS/USD Daily

NZD/USD Daily

EUR/GBP Daily

Indices 

  • if commodities rout start all over again, we fear equities are in for a run lower

FTSE Daily

CAC40 Daily

STOXX Daily

SPX Daily

VIX Daily

Commodities 

  • Every chart seems to suggest that the dead cat bounce is over but most commodities are at least bottoming with a medium to long term prospect of a IHS

Platinum Daily

Copper Daily

Oil Daily

Silver Daily