Gold’s Noises VS Facts

myths

FACTS

  • Banks and analysts made the loudest noise when they were WRONG!
  • Analysts REVISED their view based on current momentum and not future projection!
  • Herd mentality at its strongest – sheep leading another sheep analogy?!
  • No one can foretell the future accurately!

NOISES

  • New high or low is coming!
  • So often this was the case when gold was trading at $ 1050 as they see it goes lower to target $ 1000!
  • This time they see gold target $ 1400! What a U-turn!
  • A constant repeat of what had already been priced in that may further cause another run in the current direction!

 

What If…?

traders

  • What if commodities slump is set to continue after a relief dead cat bounce period?
  • What if seasonal demand has peaked and we are now looking at the next leg lower?
  • What if we are about to see a turnaround in market sentiment and the equity market?
  • What if the risk-off environment in Q1 is a perfect setup to remove excess equity strength and setup for a stronger Q2,3 and 4?
  • What if economic data from major developed and developing countries improved significantly after a rock bottom performance?
  • What if 2016 marks the year of transition in forex, commodities, bonds and indices?
  • What if Central Banks run out of ammo – what else can they do?
  • What if monetary and fiscal stimulus no longer provide the necessary results?

VIX

Weekly

Trade What You See

  • Is the dollar index about to make a sharp turn higher ?
  • A bottom found in oil? Our research and views are here – https://globalbulliontimes.com/2016/02/16/oil-bottoming-rally/
  • Current Equity recovery need a sustainable risk-on environment
  • As per highlighted in our previous report, a Q 2 short term recovery in risk-on trade may have kick start earlier
  • Has the market priced in all the possible stimulus that are due in March?
  • Will we see a general uptick in risk on sentiment as Central Banks work its way to bring back confidence?

Currencies 

Dollar Index

Weekly

USD/JPY

Weekly

EUR/USD

Weekly

GBP/USD

Monthly

NZD/USD

Daily

Indices 

FTSE

Weekly

CAC40

Weekly

STOXX

Weekly

SPX

Daily

Commodities 

Oil

Monthly

Copper

Daily

Platinum

Weekly

Gold Analysts Prophesying Doom & Gloom

Singapore-gold-price-contract-seen-increasing-metals-demand-1

  • Increasing number of analysts are revising a higher end of year target on gold
  • Bearish analysts are making leeway to potentially higher gold price in 2016

ADDITIONAL REPORTING ONLY AVAILABLE FOR PRIVATE NEWSLETTER

Can gold head higher into the end of 2016?

Sure but there are many scenarios and situations that need to happen prior to such event

Can gold head lower again in 2016?

There is no crystal ball but the overall trend on the larger time frame remain overall bearish

What should we consider?

Dollar index – Indices – Central planners – China – Economic growth – Interest rate – Currency Wars – Risk of Defaults – Production cost – Physical Demand – ETF – CTFC

 

 

Gold Reversal Soon?

King-World-News-Swiss-Franc-Fiasco-And-Crazy-Trading-In-The-Gold-And-Silver-Markets-864x400_c

Fundamental Reasonings:

  • Managed money have reduced record amount of shorts, switching to longs

Other Fundamental Reasonings are only made available to private newsletter. Kindly get in touch as the information can be made upon requests

Technical Reasonings:

  • Current price action may play out 2014 and 2015 price action (fractal at play)

Other Technical Reasonings are only made available to private newsletter. Kindly get in touch as the information can be made upon requests

Monthly

Weekly

Daily

Trading Recommendations:

(ONLY AVAILABLE UPON REQUEST & PRIVATE NEWSLETTER)