Ditching Safe Haven Trade

  • South Korea fired warning shots
  • Iran in talks to – US sailors should return safely
  • Pakistan bomb at Polio center killed 14 with 20 wounded
  • Chinese economic number fall less than expected giving global market a buffer
  • Chinese premier step up Anti Graft in 2016
  • We discussed last week how Chinese Yuan devaluation hold key to global economy (https://globalbulliontimes.com/2016/01/05/pre-opex-foundation/)
  • Saudi raised oil premium while China increase import on oil
  • Crude Oil inventories eyed today – could we see sub $ 30 per barrel again?
  • US beige book and Australia employment data will drive the currency market
  • Currency market continue to gyrate as traders look to find an equilibrium

Dollar

Daily

4 hour

  • A stronger dollar in 2016 may decrease the need for an imminent rate hike in Q1?
  • Lower time frame suggest divergence while Daily chart trying higher
  • A blow off top and a new high will not be a surprise

USD/JPY

Weekly

Daily

  • Biased for a retracement higher – thus giving risk on trade a chance to revive
  • Resistance at 120 levels which will decide the next direction but watch weekly chart that has potential of a large Head & Shoulder
  • Daily chart has lower high but no lower low thus descending triangle formation expected (may well play in this range in 2016)

Crude Oil

Weekly

Daily

  • Inventory data will dictate the next directional move
  • Will seasonal demand kicks in for a short term bounce?
  • First resistance level stands at 34.29 level while the risk lower remains open

German Bund

Daily

  • Rejection off the top BB classic run up to trap bulls and a swing lower
  • RSI continue to diverge but with risk on sentiment coming back we could retest lower channel

Copper (bullish short term bounce)

Weekly

Daily

  • Biased long for a short term bounce in copper as China look to stabilize
  • Target specific resistance at 2000 psychological level then 2050 level

GBP/USD

Weekly

Platinum (Rally is a chance to short to break 2015 low)

Weekly

Daily

  • Trend biased remains lower thus we cannot rule out a repeat to target the green buy zone within the channel
  • A small possibility of a double bottom but if it does kick in then look for a run to the red sell zone which will confluence with channel resistance
  • Sellers in control so any rally remain short opportunity
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