Safe-Haven Bid



Bullish argument

  • Short covering underway and as prices rose we shall see more
  • Key resistance to attack is psychological level at $ 1100 then $ 1120 to $ 1160
  • Saudi – Iran tension could linger though once dissipated should see pullback in gold
  • N. Korea spat of words but see no real threat of deployment
  • VIX fear index remain elevated with safe haven demand higher
  • Positive seasonality should give gold bulls more ammunition
  • Potential repeat of 2015 fractal – watch the weekly RSI with + divergence
  • Fed minute offer a much more dovish script (unless global economic situation picks up) the Fed will have a hard time to justify another hike
  • Money flow seems to support this scenario for now


  • Bulls failed to capitalise the current structure and market environment



Bullish argument

  • Another year another new low while a perfect start for short covering so bears can reload
  • Overall structure is bearish thus we make the argument for a bear rally
  • If the yellow metal rally hard, silver could piggyback on this run


  • Chinese economic rout could dampen the mood for any demand for the white metal
  • Further drop in industrial demand or any hint of recession could spur a big sell off




  • Will we see a period of short covering for bears to reload?
  • Clear bearish momentum and with poor economic outlook – this will affect demand on automotive and jewelry
  • Main mantra is to sell on a spike or short term rally
  • Really hard to say that the low is in


Media preview

Chart – courtesy of GS




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