- Watch out how monthly chart indicate confluence sell zone at $ 1171 in Platinum if it ever reach there
- Monthly RSI is showing a bullish divergence (worth a note)
- Elliot wave count indicate we are at wave 3 of 5 and a retracement to $ 1171 could be the formation of wave 4 of 5
- $ 1287 also plays out as strong resistance zone
- Weekly 20 ma remain as strong resistance and currently confluence with the downward channel (stands at 925 – 950 levels)
- Bears in full control and only a significant break out of the channel could see price action deviate higher
- Weekly RSI also confirm that platinum is heading to a potential resistance zone
- Only if price action break and close above the weekly 20 ma then we can see further short covering action to target the 50% Fib move of 2015 $ 1171 levels
- Current price action and RSI indicate a short term bounce – seasonality also favor higher prices into Q1 trading period
- Fundamentally, the supply side in platinum could help propel more short covering
- Unless we see significant economic growth or exponential demand from Auto sector and Jewelry, biased remain for a retest lower or make new low in 2016
HSBC projection (worth taking into account):
“For palladium, positive auto sector and industrial demand should help stabilize prices,” HSBC said. “Near-term mine supply appears adequate but we expect the market will still run a wide production consumption deficit in 2016, which should support prices.”
HSBC projected a supply deficit in the platinum market for fifth straight year, calling for demand to outpace supply by 227,000 ounces in 2016. The expected 2016 supply deficit for palladium was listed at 703,000 ounces.
Analysts said they foresee a platinum trading range in 2016 of $815 to $1,105 an ounce. Their forecast range for palladium is $555 to $720.