Geo-Political Risks – Inter Market Analysis

Video footage published by Anadolu news agency purportedly showing unidentified military aircraft crashing into mountains near Turkey's border with Syria (24 November 2015)

 

Dollar Index

Daily

4 hour

Dollar index remain in situ despite escalation of Turkey – Russia potential issues. History points to dollar buying during such situation and the lack of buying could suggest that dollar bull is very much in place. The high dollar has set up for ECB QE expansion and the imminent US rate hike.

German Bund

Daily

4 hour

Yesterday sell off look technical but the recovery was remarkable to say the least. Buying the dip is very much the strategy but we would like to warn that the bullish channel is broken and price action broke the structure. Only a close above yesterday high will bring about the bullish momentum. Otherwise, we expect a series of consolidation of retest of support below. WIth ECB meeting next week – tight stops is much preferred in taking any trades.

Euro

Daily

4 hour

Long trade in Euro is merely for fading the sell off strength – this remains to be the case as the technical and fundamental reason is to keep selling rallies. Signs of divergence is showing and traders should be cautious to press shorts post ECB and FOMC.

Dax

Daily

4 hour

 

Risk off sentiment sets in – yesterday daily candle also confirms that failure to close with higher high indicate weakness from the bull camp – potentially exhausted. A mini pullback is expected but going short will need to remain cautious as we head to next week ECB meeting. Note how the 4 hour chart maintain a bullish channel.

Gold

Daily

4 hour

Safe haven buying remains weak and gold continue to languish near the 2015 low of 1063.5. Sellers tried to drive lower for a retest but buyers turned up – which could indicate a short term bounce. A tagged on the 20 dma remains a target for short to reload. The overall trend remains bearish despite an oversold RSI.

Silver

Daily

4 hour

Silver look set to make another new low if the 4 hour fractal plays out. Daily chart also indicate a megaphone formation with no conclusion on the next big direction. Despite that, the risk reward is clearly turning for a quick bounce higher before the bearish trend continues. As a reminder, previous daily chart also indicate we have a triple bottom at 13.90 levels which could get retested before we see that bounce.

 

 

 

 

 

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