Bumpy Ride Ahead – Inter Market Analysis

Dollar Index

Weekly

Daily

The dollar index await further catalyst and today US retail sales could be the key to unlock further directional move. Biased remain to the downside – potentially profit taking in the next week or so – prior to December “live” meeting from ECB and the Fed.

German Bunds

Daily

4 hour

Bunds reacted higher and could well repeat September price action to target at least 76.8% fib retracement (157.70) before profit taking. We aim to wait for a retest and buy the pullback at 156.00 levels and hold for a new high into end of the year.

Euro

Daily

4 hour

Euro reacted positively post many central bank speeches – dollar bulls are unwinding some of their positions ahead of US retail sales data – with that in mind, the overall trend on the Euro remain bearish. Any positive data to suggest an imminent rate hike will squeeze the Euro lower but we noticed that recently it lack new sellers so certainly a warning sign for a potential dump then pump scenario.

German Dax

Weekly


Daily

Dax weekly close could post a big problem for early next week – bearish engulfing flag could well instigate more selling as we head to ECB December meeting. SPX is already indicating that it could weakened to pre Draghi QE speech and if that is the case then Dax could play catch up but we have eyes on 10200 as strong support zone otherwise 9950.

Gold

Daily

4 hour

Gold may well get into consolidation mode but with a data later, price action will get choppy and we cannot discount a retest lower or new low for 2015. The agenda remain the same for a rate hike in December and there are significant short pressure as the overall trend remains down. A dead cat bounce will not be a surprise but it could well be another selling opportunity. For physical buyers, current price action is great if you are looking to buy and hold for the long haul.

Silver

Daily

4 hour

Silver commentary is unchanged from yesterday’s report. Could try a small long at 13.90 for a possible triple bottom. Potential cup and handle formation on the daily?

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