A Very Dovish Q4 – Inter Market Analysis

Dollar Index

Daily

4 hour

Bulls remain in full control here as market expectation of a rate hike in December looks imminent.

German Bund

Daily

4 hour

Bunds head lower but we are debating if the low was a fake low as we head towards ECB meeting in December. The elliott wave count may work but daily 100 ma is a tempting area for a small long with a tight stop. Traders who like fractal will use September as a possible replica that suggest a big rally is due.

Euro

Daily

4 hour

Euro due to find some good support but with Draghi talking today, we cannot help to envisage a retest lower before a small bounce. Sellers continue to dominate as price action will ping pong within the downward channel. The bigger picture from a fundamental and technical perspective remains very weak and parity before end of the year seems to be the target.

Dax

Daily

4 hour

Dax is very well supported by dovish ECB comments as they consider cut in deposit rate and assessing more QE by December meeting. One would assume that Dax would spike higher for 11200 by now given all the bullish view – price seems to struggle at 11100 and December 3 meeting could give the much needed catalyst. Our medium term bias is for a flush lower to take out weak longs before we get the big rally higher.

Gold

Daily

4 hour

The selling has slightly abated but price is consolidating at a weak spot that suggest any rally to 1095 remain sellers paradise. Large stops at 1077 is the next ideal target for sellers to push for 1050 at least before we see any bounce. We are watching the dollar index closely but well aware that gold has not broke previous low despite the increase chance of a rate hike compared to July low.

Silver

Daily

4 hour

9 straight days of selling as the long unwinds and sellers continue to take control. As previously mentioned in our daily and weekly analysis, the higher Silver price 3 weeks ago was very much a dead cat bounce within a bear trend. We cannot rule out a retest of previous low and given such weak momentum – a brand new low may happen.

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