Inter Market Analysis – 25th June

Equity

World markets (as of the time of publishing)

Shanghai 4,527.78 -162.37 (-3.46%)
S&P 500 2,108.58 -15.62 (-0.74%)
Nikkei 225 20,771.40 -96.63 (-0.46%)
Hang Seng Index 27,145.75 -259.22 (-0.95%)
TSEC 9,476.34 +79.03 (0.84%)
EURO STOXX 50 3,607.72 -3.23 (-0.09%)
CAC 40 5,032.64 -12.71 (-0.25%)
S&P TSX 14,947.51 +42.60 (0.29%)
S&P/ASX 200 5,632.70 -54.10 (-0.95%)
BSE Sensex 27,866.65 +136.98 (0.49%)
TA25 1,673.62 -8.70 (-0.52%)
SMI 9,068.26 -13.55 (-0.15%)
ATX 2,513.61 +0.78 (0.03%)
IBOVESPA 53,842.54 +70.11 (0.13%)
SET 1,519.46 +1.20 (0.08%)
BIST100 83,894.27 -246.38 (-0.29%)
IBEX 11,323.20 +1.30 (0.01%)
WIG 54,320.87 +206.50 (0.38%)
TASI 9,312.48 -0.57 (-0.01%)
MERVAL 10,009.99 -72.41 (-0.72%)

Risk On

  • China increase stimulus roughly o 6.6 trillion yuan – PBOC inject liquidity

Risk Off

  • Greece remain defiant – deadline given for today – has until 30th June
  • Mixed Asian equties – HK shares fall on Greece Fear – China Slide – Nikkei of breaking yesterday ATH
  • GFK German consumer lower than previous but come in as expected
  • BUBA concerned continued ELA for Greece
  • Ongoing escalation in Middle East (ISIS and Syria)
  • H & M profit hit by stronger Dollar
  • Cameron to renegotiate EU treaty – Brexit?

Outlook: All European stocks are trading an inside day (breakout today?). Note that Asian equities are lower and mixed, probably profit taking ahead of Greece imminent deal? All priced in for a deal? What happened post Greece? Mind you GAPs need to be filled.

Biased: If a deal is clinched than we see a victory lap on EZ equities – overall stance is to sell in euphoric rallies

Currencies

  • MOF Watanabe said sees the US unlikely to strengthen further if Fed raises rates one or twice (Asia market see dollar sell off)
  • SNB Jordan say Franc still too strong
  • Dollar on the back foot – will Europe open follow through?
  • Dollar may remain supported with the Greece debacle
  • A higher low in commodities currencies AUS/USD
  • FOMC Tarullo and Powell to speak

Outlook: Dollar on the back foot but the IHS could still be in play

Biased: Higher dollar as long as there is no Deal. Deal done then depends on Dollar sell-off which may make or break the index technically. Neutral

Bonds

  • Sell off on the open (should be Euro supportive)

Outlook: Bunds to move lower given EUR/USD set to break higher (have to wait till Dollar strength pass)

Biased: Bunds sell off post Greece due to market Euphoria (Risk On)

Commodities

  • Crude Oil Inventories lower than expected
  • Copper trying to find support?
  • Ongoing escalation in Middle East (ISIS and Syria)
  • Precious metals on the back foot if equities rose (lack of market interest)

Outlook: Dollar makes or breaks here-but in general commodities are weak.

Biased: Downside pressure continues

Watchlists 

USD index

IHS is still in play unless it trade out of the symmetrical triangle

German Bund

Hit resistance and could resume lower despite bullish RSI divergence

Copper

Inside a downtrend channel but may find support at 2548

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