Bullion & PGMs Going South – 19th June

Bullion Daily

The following information is a guideline (trading plan) and should not be treated as financial advice. Not advice but banter and active in sharing trade ideas via twitter @sugardaddyFED. You can also follow us via TradingView.com for the latest charts update.

Daily Update

  • 1205 holds and remain as resistance as 61.8% retracement play to perfection
  • The high also hit the daily upper Bollinger band and current PA is holding above 100 DMA at 1198
  • A break below may open up the opportunity to retest 50 DMA and 20 DMA
  • Watch for a possible retest of the breakout level at 20 DMA at 1186
  • Note the BB is converging tighter and we will not be surprise to see another short term range trading between 1205 and 1170 levels before a breakout
  • Only a break and close above 1205 and 1216 will indicate a bullish reversal
  • Don’t be surprise if price stall at 1205 with daily RSI stuck at 60
  • We are not ruling out another month of range trading

Daily Update

  • Afraid it is another fizzled rally as the bounced could not sustain any corrective rally
  • Yesterday high of 16.448 failed to even reach 38.2% at 16.55
  • In our previous commentary, we highlighted that the MAs are rolling lower and another flush lower is still in the cards
  • We will continue to monitor the price action and should it close and hold above 20 DMA, then a long position can be initiated (Price failed to do this)
  • Our medium term view is still bearish
  • Rejection of 20 DMA then look for a retest to previous low of 15.803 and then a possible target of 15.60 on the lower BB

Yesterday’s price action does not give any confidence that a corrective rally is underway and this is a second count ever since the downtrend started. This not only indicate a bear market that is heavily dominated by sellers but also the lack of interest of bargain hunters. Downward economic revision on the US GDP may have been one of the factor here. With hindsight, our short position was good but we have covered this due to event risk that the Federal Reserve proclaimed a dovish tone. Suppose another flush to the lower trend line playout, we will be a happy bargain hunters. Meanwhile, we sit tight to take the next opportunity to either have a short term short position or just watch how the market implode.

Below are key levels that we will continue to monitor and this will change depending on price action.

Daily Resistance levels:

  • 100 dma at 1147 / 50 at 1129 and 20 at 1102

Daily Support levels:

  • Lower BB line at 1069

The selling continues here and we are aware that price may soon need to retrace for a MA reconnect. Without a clear signal that the selling has abated and no divergence on the RSI, then sellers will continue to drive this market lower. We have several attempts to drive it higher but that failed on the daily basis time and time again. Looking at the weekly chart, we may have an AB = CD playing out as price break out of the consolidation range that was a bear flag (will post on our weekly update). Current price action continues to favour sellers. Note that the Daily RSI has hit oversold area but has not made any divergence.

Below are key levels that we will continue to monitor and this will change depending on price action.

Daily Resistance levels:

  • 200 dma at 781 / 100 at 773 / 20 at 751 / 50 at 767

Daily Support levels:

  • 716.6
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