Needs A Rally To Crash Lower – 16th June

Bullion Daily

The following information is a guideline (trading plan) and should not be treated as financial advice. Not advice but banter and active in sharing trade ideas via twitter @sugardaddyFED. You can also follow us via TradingView.com for the latest charts update.

Daily Update

  • Gold tested 1172 and held (minor support)
  • 20 DMA also acted as resistance with 1189 (38.2% Fib) and 1192 was previous high
  • Gold remain in corrective rally with a possible target of 50% Fib at 1197
  • Only a break and close above 1205 and 1216 will indicate a bullish reversal
  • Monday price action is a bullish engulfing candle
  • Bollinger band is converging for a potential breakout
  • This week economic events will be strong catalysts for a potential breakout
  • Note that gold is still trading within the tight range of 1160 – 1232 level
  • Seasonal pattern is playing out on Gold as all the DMAs are converging (see 2014)
  • The longer the bear hesitate to short the market, the higher the probability of a short covering rally

Daily Update

  • Bottoming here or one last move lower as we are heading to FOMC?
  • For a stronger signal, we prefer the charts to provide us with a confirmation
  • Either a break out with a strong candle from the downtrend channel or a retest of the lower Bollinger Band
  • Silver is creating higher high and higher low with support at 15.80 (which was April low)
  • April low also mark the start of a reversal rally
  • Should silver retest 15.60 then a long can be initiated with a tight stop at 15.30

Not much has changed for Platinum as price momentum continues to remain weak and heading lower. Should the pattern play out, we envisage a new low at 1050 – 1065 levels is possible. Mind you, there is a lot of empty space below and the trend will dictate price action. In this scenario, the red channel line could act as a magnet within this downtrend line.

Below are key levels that we will continue to monitor and this will change depending on price action.

Daily Resistance levels:

  • 100 dma at 1152 / 50 at 1134 and 20 at 1113

Daily Support levels:

  • Lower BB line at 1072

The small long position is close for a loss and we will stay on the side line for now. Palladium will need to play catch up with the rest of the metals mentioned above. Line in the sand is that rising red line which was support. Break below that then the orange dotted line is next. We will wait for an inside day pattern to trade the long side.

Below are key levels that we will continue to monitor and this will change depending on price action.

Daily Resistance levels:

  • 200 dma at 784 / 100 at 775 / 20 at 761 / 50 at 770

Daily Support levels:

  • 731 and 722
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