Deal or No Deal – Bullion Daily 12th June

Bullion Daily

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The following information is a guideline (trading plan) and should not be treated as financial advice. Not advice but banter and active in sharing trade ideas via twitter @sugardaddyFED. You can also follow us via TradingView.com for the latest charts update.

We are testing different formats on how we can best deliver Bullion Daily to give another angle, view and perspective of the market. Any comments or feedback then please drop it on the twitter feed or via the comment box below.

Daily Update

  • VIX at 13.63 and been falling
  • USD showing a potential Bear flag (bullish)
  • Watch for better than expected US PPI numbers (priced in?)
  • Gold remains in Corrective Rally as long as the black trend hold (bullish)
  • Gold broke out of the downward channel line (mark in orange) and retested it at 1176 (bullish)
  • Failure to hold on 1176 (bearish) KEY SUPPORT
  • Short term swing high in consolidation and upside as long as price hold above the trend line (bullish)
  • Yesterday candle is an inside day (trend continuation?) (bullish)
  • Potential AB = CD here target 1205 levels (61.8% Fib and 200 DMA) (bullish)
  • Failure to retake 1189 will be (bearish) and Failure to break above 1197 (bearish)
  • As long as price does not break and close above 1205 (bearish) KEY RESISTANCE

Daily Update

  • 1 hourly
  • 200 ma acting as strong resistance at 16.21 as it coincide with downtrend line
  • Other MAs are converging and could potentially roll higher
  • RSI divergence continues (bullish?)
  • 4 hourly
  • RSI Divergence here, potentially basing pattern here? (bullish?)
  • 58 strong resistance here as it coincide with 200 ma
  • 100 ma just cross below 200 ma (bearish)
  • Price still trade below the downtrend line (bearish)
  • Daily
  • 20 MA about to cross below 100 MA could mean more selling in the days ahead before a reversal (bearish)

The relief rally looks to have fizzled and the trend for lower prices set to continue from here on. See levels on chart (box 1 and box 2). Platinum is still bearish and sellers continue to dominate unless we see a big shift in price action. Since price did not break above 32.8%level of 1122, we have initiated small short positions and look to build with stops at 20 DMA and target 1065 and 1035 levels.

Below are key levels that we will continue to monitor and this will change depending on price action.

Daily Resistance levels:

  • 100 dma at 1156 / 50 at 1137 and 20 at 1121

Daily Support levels:

  • Lower BB line at 1075 and previous low at 1087.5

Please note that 4 hourly time frame shows bullish divergence and the daily chart seems to indicate a possible base. We have yet to see any pullback and at the rate it is going, a retest for support at the rising trend line may ease the selling temporarily. We might consider to place long on a confirmation of another green candle (see yellow box). For today only, we place a small long to play the corrective rally at 741.5 stops at 731.5 target 756 and 762 levels.

Failure on the above long then we maintains a bearish view as Palladium play catch up with the rest of the metals mentioned above. Line in the sand is that rising red line which was support. Break below that then the orange dotted line is next.

Below are key levels that we will continue to monitor and this will change depending on price action.

Daily Resistance levels:

  • Previous daily high at 801.6 and 797.6
  • 200 dma at 785 / 100 at 776 / 20 at 765 / 50 at 771

Daily Support levels:

  • 733 and 720

Economic Calendar & Fundamental Analysis

Friday 12th June

  • NZD PPI came in higher than expected
  • German WPI came in better again (risk on)
  • Eyes on US PPI data which again is expected to beat expectation (applies to US UoM Consumer sentiment)
  • Fed watcher Steve Beckner at MNI (see forexlive)
  • BOJ Harada said in no rush for more stimulus (risk off)
  • EU Juncker says talks with Greece will restart on technical level (risk off)
  • Nikkei close up (risk on)
  • Market chatter on next week FOMC meeting
  • VIX indicator stands at 13.63 (risk on)
  • Commodities lacklustre while USD is showing a potential bear flag
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