Trading NFP Data – 5th June

Bullion Daily

The following information is a guideline (trading plan) and should not be treated as financial advice. Not advice but banter and active in sharing trade ideas via twitter @sugardaddyFED. You can also follow us via TradingView.com for the latest charts update.

In the chart, we have highlighted potential support zones as well as resistance zones. There really is not much to add except to keep remind our readers to stay focus, react and keep a tight stop if you do decide to trade pre and post NFP data. Staying on the side line is also another trading strategy.

Technically, gold is underwater and trade well below all the daily moving average. It is reaching several key support zones that will be crucial to its next directional move. Mind you, it has been a market that is dominated by sellers and the bearish view out of the media is deafening. Keep calm and trade gold.

Below are key levels that we will continue to monitor and this will change depending on price action.

Daily Resistance Levels:

  • Previous high at 1232.31
  • DMAs 200 at 1211 / 100 at 1209 / 50 at 1197 and 20 at 1199
  • Previous high at 1204

Daily Support Levels:

  • May low 1170.30

Short Silver has once again worked out well for us and we have raised stops and could well consider going to cover before NFP data. Silver is heading to some key support and should we see a bounce then a reversal long could be the play of the day.

Yesterday price action hit the lower BB line and this action should resume lower silver prices in the short term. We see 15.70-15.80 levels as key support zones. Failure below will then take us to look for the purple line as next key support.

The lower Bollinger Band stands at 16.12 and that should provide a minor support which may warrant a bounce to 16.45 levels. Should that play out; we envisage lower silver prices with a potential price target of 15.77 as stated yesterday.”

Below are key levels that we will continue to monitor and this will change depending on price action.

Daily Resistance Levels:

  • Previous daily high at 17.75
  • 200 ma at 16.86, 100 ma at 16.67, 20 ma at 16.86, 50 ma at 16.60
  • Upper BB line at 17.64
  • Fib retracement level 38.2% at 16.40

Daily Support Levels:

  • Lower BB at 16.00 (watch BB rising and Converging)

We maintain our view on Platinum as long as it trade in the increasingly tight wedge. Only a break out of the wedge then a short to medium term direction will set in. Our bias is for a relief rally here since it is oversold and given it is still in this downtrend channel (orange dotted line), then an attempt to 100 dma or top of the BB line is possible. Weakness in Platinum is by far the worse out of all the metals and the damage done on the chart is suggesting more weakness to come forth unless we see a strong green close. Only a break above the downtrend line will give buyers some relieve, otherwise we have 1067 as price target.

Below are key levels that we will continue to monitor and this will change depending on price action.

Daily Resistance levels:

  • Previous daily high at 1177.1
  • 100 dma at 1168 / 50 at 1144 and 20 at 1136

Daily Support levels:

  • Lower BB line at 1084
  • March low at 1086.5

Palladium hit a low of 751.50 which has strong support zone as it confluence with 61.8% from the previous rally. We continue to see some sort of relieve pullback as it reach some minor support but maintain the view that this is a sellers’ market. Traders will look at this as a double bottom confirmation as long as price does not trade or close below 750 levels. Therefore, expect a relief rally and profit taking to get a bounce to 767 which is first resistance followed by the daily Mas.

Only a break above the downward line (red) will give the bulls the confidence to test higher prices. Current price action is dominated by sellers so a pullback higher is still a sell. Our profit target at 752 is hit so we have covered all our short positions.

Below are key levels that we will continue to monitor and this will change depending on price action.

Daily Resistance levels:

  • Previous daily high at 801.6 and 797.6
  • 200 dma at 790 / 100 at 777 / 20 at 778 / 50 at 771
  • Downtrend line (see the shaded brown zone)

Daily Support levels:

  • Fib retracement levels 38.2% at 771.5 / 50% at 762.3 / 61.8% at 752.9 (tested)

Economic Calendar & Fundamental Analysis

Time Cur. Imp. Event Actual Forecast Previous
Friday, June 5, 2015
06:00   EUR German Factory Orders (MoM) (Apr)

–          Better than expected but that could be due to previously low Euro

–          Dax reacting to Greece bundle payment news

1.4% 0.5% 1.1%
09:00   EUR GDP (QoQ) (Q1)   0.4% 0.4%
09:00   EUR GDP (YoY) (Q1)   1.0% 1.0%
12:30   USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (May)

–          Will be closely monitored if Wages have increased

–          Any increase will help boost the economy on recovery path

  0.2% 0.1%
12:30   USD Nonfarm Payrolls (May)

–          Big expectation for better data

–          Expect big jolt both in US index and bonds

  225K 223K
12:30   USD Participation Rate (May)

–          Will be closely monitored

  62.8%
12:30   USD Private Nonfarm Payrolls (May)

–          Expected to boost the USD higher

–          Bad data will imply a big ? for a September rate hike

  220K 213K
12:30   USD Unemployment Rate (May)

–          Should remain unchanged

  5.4% 5.4%
12:30   CAD Employment Change (May)   10.0K -19.7K
12:30   CAD Labor Productivity (QoQ) (Q1)   0.2% -0.1%
12:30   CAD Unemployment Rate (May)   6.8% 6.8%
16:30   USD FOMC Member Dudley Speaks

–          Expect a balanced but slightly dovish remark

 
19:30   GBP CFTC GBP speculative net positions   -25.5K
19:30   USD CFTC Gold speculative net positions   104.7K
19:30   USD CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions   -69.2K
19:30   AUD CFTC AUD speculative net positions   6.4K
19:30   JPY CFTC JPY speculative net positions   -62.2K
19:30   EUR CFTC EUR speculative net positions   -171.7K
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