Precious Metal Trade Idea – 24th April

Bullion Daily


The following information is a guideline (trading plan) and should not be treated as financial advice.

Trading Instruments:  Gold                                                                                          Trade Size: 2 contracts

Technical Indicator Daily Chart Reasoning
Support Zones 1193 / 1183 and 1173 As long as gold trades above 1183 it can try higher
Resistance Zones 1198 and 1212 Need to reclaim 20 ma and 100 ma
RSI Indicator 47.5 Not oversold yet
MACD Lack of momentum
Bollinger Bands 1214 and 1183 Stabilising for a breakout?
Candlesticks Positive Close (Open 1188.96 Close 1193.78) Selling outweigh Buying days
Trade Ideas Breaking out

After it found support at the daily BB line 1183, gold regained confidence to trade higher in a corrective move. On the hourly chart, it managed to retrace to 50% retracement level and hit resistance of 200 ma at 1198. This morning it tested to resume higher again but failed at 100 ma resistance just below 1196 – which suggest that the corrective move is weak and further weakness could be around the corner.

Despite that, we will not discount gold price volatility which could have its explosive session in the 2nd half of the afternoon (UK time zone) when we have US Durable data to digest. The Dollar remains weak but somehow found buyers after much selling and short covering in the Euro and other currencies.

Technically, price is still trading in a tight symmetrical triangle range of 1201 and 1183. Break of either side will force quite possibly a big 20 to 40 dollar move. Key levels to watch today for gold is 1183 support and 1201 resistance. Break on either one of those will set a large scale move and that depends how the dollar move. We will be watching the close on gold today as it is set to post a 3rd bearish candlestick on the weekly chart.

Trading Instruments:  Silver                                                                                         Trade Size: 2 contracts

Technical Indicator Daily Chart Reasoning
Support Zones 15.69 and 15.56 May test 15.56
Resistance Zones 16.20/16.56/16.60 and 17.45 Layer of resistance from 20 ma to 50 to 100
RSI Indicator 39.07 Bearish but not yet oversold
Stochastic Fast and Slow Hovering at the lower level
Bollinger Bands 17.10 and 15.66 BB moved lower – Further weakness
Candlesticks Positive Close (Open 15.83 Close 15.89)
Trade Ideas Looking to place a risky buy should it test support at 15.55

The outlook on Silver remains dim and demand for the white metal has suffered a setback due to lack of global growth and demand. Once again, we raise our reminder that Silver prices are erratic and moved in a big range so cautious trading with tight and guaranteed stop loss is highly advised.

Price action on Silver has been limited and the indicator showed that selling any rallies are still the way to trade. However, we also fancy a contrarian trade to buy Silver should it find support at the trend line at 15.55 for a corrective move. To neutralise this weakness, Silver need to trade above 16.60 followed by the daily 200 MA at 16.73 before any reversal trend could be set in place. Only a break and close above 17.45 will give bulls the opportunity to ride the market higher.

Only a break below 15.12 will damage the weekly and monthly trend line.

Placed a long at 15.55 with a 20 point stop loss to target 15.85, 16.05 and 16.435 offers a great RR (raise stop to BE when we reach 1st target).

Trading Instruments:  Platinum                                                                                  Trade Size: 2 contracts

Technical Indicator Reasoning
Support Zones 1112 and 1124 March 2015 low at 1112 could be next
Resistance Zones 1151 Need to reclaim 20, 50 and 100 ma
RSI Indicator 41.73 Bearish but not oversold yet
Stochastic Fast and Slow Bearish Divergence  continues
Bollinger Bands 1178 and 1123 Stabilising
Candlesticks Positive close (Open 1131 Close 1135)
Trade Ideas Selling pressure abating?

We continue to look for a corrective pullback to trade higher but will also look to sell on rallies. Further weakness is still in store given that the indicators are just turning lower but we expect a small pullback possibly retest 1142 and a high of 1160.

A break and close above 1136 may give this pullback further leg to test higher numbers but any pullbacks are selling opportunities in the sellers’ market. Meanwhile, the Bears might try to take out the weekly lower BB at 1102 or even retest previous low at 1086.20.

We have covered all our short positions in profit – flat and waiting for next short entry or corrective pullback opportunity.

Trading Instruments:  Palladium                                                                                Trade Size: 2 contracts

Technical Indicator Reasoning
Support Zones 746/754 and 761 Low hit at 752.50 (double bottom)
Resistance Zones 758/778 and 785 Several 20, 50 and 100 ma
RSI Indicator 50.37 Could turn higher to neutral 50
Stochastic Fast and Slow Fast line attempting higher but rejected
Bollinger Bands 789 and 732 Rising BB again?
Candlesticks Positive close (Open 756.7 Close 769.6)
Trade Ideas Gap not filled and IHS Failed again.

A corrective pullback has happened on the bounce from 752.50. The metal is adamant that it wants to make a point that it will not fill the bloody gap at 740. Instead, the 745 to 755 area is now strong support zone and only a break below that will give the sellers more control. Meanwhile, Palladium could resume higher after it rebound off the 50% retracement high of 786.50. With that in mind, we cannot rule out a retest of 777, top of the BB line 788 or the 200 ma at 802. Only a break of 746 may indicate further weakness is in store.

We would like to add also that the 4 hour chart may suggest the end of the corrective move after the sell-off, after hitting 50% retracement area at 796.40 and may suffice a small short position with a stop at 780 (risk 10 points) to target 760. It is not offering a great RR but it is still a short term opportunity.


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