Precious Metal Trade Idea – 23rd April

Bullion Daily


The following information is a guideline (trading plan) and should not be treated as financial advice.

Trading Instruments:  Gold                                                                                          Trade Size: 2 contracts

Technical Indicator Daily Chart Reasoning
Support Zones 1193 / 1183 and 1173 Broke below 1193 retest 1183
Resistance Zones 1209 / 1213 and 1224 Failure to break 1209 for the 3rd time
RSI Indicator 46.12 Bearish
Stochastic Fast and Slow Bearish. Fast line broke lower
Bollinger Bands 1214 and 1183 Hit lower BB
Candlesticks Negative Close (Open 1201.86 Close 1188.96)
Trade Ideas Breakout and consolidating

If we are playing chess then Gold has finally made a move after hesitating for a long while. Yesterday’s price action suggested that Bulls gave up after repetitive failure to move higher despite fertile grounds such as a weaker US dollar, Grexit uncertainty and a correction in the equity market. Technically, price is still trading in a tight symmetrical triangle range of 1209 and 1183. Break of either side will force quite possibly a big 20 to 40 dollar move.

Given that all the economic and geo-political risks have been priced in, gold bulls may soon run out of luck. Unless we have another bad set of US economic data which may instil further weakness into the US dollar, then brace for more downside risk.

We continue to watch for US data coming out this afternoon with New Home Sales, US Markit Manufacturing and the all-important Durable Goods Orders this coming Friday which may set the next direction. Our weekly trading view also includes our long term take on gold trades as follows: –

Trading Instruments:  Silver                                                                                         Trade Size: 2 contracts

Technical Indicator Daily Chart Reasoning
Support Zones 15.72 and 15.56 Tested 78.60 at 15.72. Price trading below previous support now resistance. next is 15.56
Resistance Zones 16.20/16.56/16.60 and 17.45 Layer of resistance
RSI Indicator 39.25 Bearish
Stochastic Fast and Slow Hovering at the lower level
Bollinger Bands 17.15 and 15.72 BB moved lower – more selling ahead?
Candlesticks Negative Close (Open 16.01 Close 15.83)
Trade Ideas Took out support at 15.89, 15.72 and next is 15.56?

Afraid we have not much to add on the Silver view other than stay cautious as we are expecting various US economic data. As another reminder, Silver prices are erratic and moved in a big range so cautious trading with tight and guaranteed stop loss is highly advised.

Silver continue to trade below what was previously support now resistance level and current price action suggest further weakness could prevail. To neutralise this weakness, Silver need to trade above 16.60 followed by the daily 200 MA at 16.73 before any reversal trend could be set in place. Only a break and close above 17.45 will give bulls the opportunity to ride the market higher.

Meanwhile, bears are still in full control and have the opportunity to test 15.72 and 15.56 where we can find some good support. Only a break below 15.12 will damage the weekly and monthly trend line.

We will not rule out a retest of 15.72 and 15.56 for good support. Enter a long at 15.55 with a 20 point stop loss to target 15.85, 16.05 and 16.435 offers a great RR (raise stop to BE when we reach 1st target). Should the long position fail, we then look for previous low and the possibility to short Silver on the break and close of 15.55.

Trading Instruments:  Platinum                                                                                  Trade Size: 2 contracts

Technical Indicator Reasoning
Support Zones 1147/1136 and 1124 1124 taken out with a low of 1122.50
Resistance Zones 1155/1186 and 1196 To resume higher it needs to reclaim 1166
RSI Indicator 42.10 Broke below 50 – bearish
Stochastic Fast and Slow Bearish Divergence  continues
Bollinger Bands 1176 and 1123 BB moved lower
Candlesticks Negative close (Open 1148.1 Close 1131)
Trade Ideas Indicators suggest selling pressure

Platinum took out the lower BB line and marked a low at 1122.50. Further weakness is still in store given that the indicators are just turning lower but we expect a small pullback possibly retest 1142 and a high of 1160.

A break and close above 1136 may give this pullback further leg to test higher numbers but any pullbacks are selling opportunities in the sellers’ market. Meanwhile, the Bears might try to take out the weekly lower BB at 1103 or even retest previous low at 1086.20.

We have covered all our short positions in profit – flat and waiting for next short entry opportunity.

Trading Instruments:  Palladium                                                                                Trade Size: 2 contracts

Technical Indicator Reasoning
Support Zones 746/754 and 761 Low hit at 752.50 (double bottom)
Resistance Zones 758/778 and 785
RSI Indicator 46.60 Could turn higher to neutral 50
Stochastic Fast and Slow Fast line attempting higher
Bollinger Bands 788 and 729 BB stabilising
Candlesticks Negative close (Open 770.6 Close 756.7)
Trade Ideas Gap not filled and IHS Failed again.

Somehow, Palladium Bull Run is not over yet. It is true that it has made a negative day but it managed to rebound off the 50% retracement high of 786.50. With that in mind, we cannot rule out a retest of 777, top of the BB line 788 or the 200 dma at 802

One underlying pattern here is that a buy or sell seems to trigger on the 4 hr BB line and should that pattern continues, we will not rule out that a short term rebound in Palladium is underway. Despite that, a break of 746 may indicate further weakness is in store.

We are waiting for a higher pullback to short the metal on any corrective rallies to target 766, 752 and 740 again. Potential H&S formation on the 4 hour chart cannot be rule out! For today, we are looking for a corrective pullback higher to warrant a short position.


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