Precious Metal Trade Idea – 15th April

Bullion Daily

The following information is a guideline (trading plan) and should not be treated as financial advice.

Trading Instruments:  Gold                                                                                          Trade Size: 2 contracts

Technical Indicator Daily Chart Reasoning
Support Zones 1193 / 1183 and 1173 1193 and 1183 hit with 1173 as next target
Resistance Zones 1200/1206 and 1223 Yesterday price action failed to retake 1200
RSI Indicator 47 Below 50 and heading lower
Stochastic Fast and Slow Slow line has rooms to drop further
Bollinger Bands 1215 and 1176 Looming Breakout – TIghtening
Candlesticks Negative Close (Open 1199 Close 1193.9)
Trade Ideas Biased to the downside

Post US Retail sales data and a weaker US dollar index, gold did a classic dump and pump day but failed to retake the 1200 handle. This week low was set at 1183 (50% retracement line) which now act as support. Break below 1183 and 1177 will increase selling pressure to target 1173 for support. Bulls may gave up on any upside momentum after CFTC report mentioned that Short Covering activity is low as Hedge Funds shift their stance to go long – creating more long exposure than shorts.

Current price action suggests caution with a slight bearish inclination as price action this week is confined at 1207.9 and 1182. Given such range trading, a break on either side will give traders the confidence to trade in that direction. We expect the ECB press conference to provide volatility in the currency market and gold could be in the mix. It might be best to stay on the side line before taking on more trades.

Yesterday we took a short position at 1189 but covered all at 1183 (part of the rule to reduce risk in front of major economic data). Flat on gold now until a clear break of either directions.

Trading Instruments:  Silver                                                                                         Trade Size: 2 contracts

Technical Indicator Daily Chart Reasoning
Support Zones 16.60/16.35 and 16.09 and 15.72 61.8% retracement at 16.08 is providing a flimsy support  next 15.72
Resistance Zones 16.56/16.60 and 17.45 Need 16.60 for higher target
RSI Indicator 42 Heading lower if selling pressure persist
Stochastic Fast and Slow Selling could continue
Bollinger Bands 17.27 and 16.02 Expect rebound but look to Short
Candlesticks Negative Close (Open 16.28 Close 16.18)
Trade Ideas Make or Break point

We literally scratched our head trying to find the next catalyst for a higher Silver price. Poor economic data from the US provide short covering but the overall trend remains bearish. Technically, silver is holding on to support from the rising BB line but below that we look for 15/73 and 15.50 for next set of support. Expect strong resistance now at $ 16.60 and only a break above that will allow the metal to target $ 16.80 (200 DMA).

This week, we expect a choppier price action and only a clean break of $ 16.00 will confirm our next short recommendation.

Trading Instruments:  Platinum                                                                                  Trade Size: 2 contracts

Technical Indicator Reasoning
Support Zones 1147/1136 and 1124 Hit support at 1147 after failure at 1186
Resistance Zones 1155/1186 and 1196 Hit Weekly trend line at 1186
RSI Indicator 48.75 Indicate further selling atm
Stochastic Fast and Slow Fast line broke lower (bearish divergence)
Bollinger Bands 1175 and 1121 Lower BB line playing catch up
Candlesticks Negative close (Open 1152.6 Close 1151.4)
Trade Ideas Indicators suggest selling pressure

Low at 1137.50 was registered from yesterday price action but buyers came in to push a close to 1151.40 thus indicating some interest or short covering. The 50% retracement line comes in at 1136.10 which suggest support is expected there. Current price is trading above the 20 DMA.

We are sticking to our bearish stance and yesterday took a short position at 1158.2 and closed all at 1151. Any bounce are short opportunities at the moment and we will not hesitate to take another short should the opportunity arises.

Trading Instruments:  Palladium                                                                                Trade Size: 2 contracts

Technical Indicator Reasoning
Support Zones 746/754 and 761 Both 756 and 749 tested. Can it hold now?
Resistance Zones 758/779 and 785 20/50 and 100 DMAs
RSI Indicator 48.69 Neutral ground should it reclaim 50
Stochastic Fast and Slow Fast line crossed lower after 13 days of up

1st April to 13th April

Bollinger Bands 785 and 730 BB is contracting
Candlesticks Negative close (Open 769.3 Close 765)
Trade Ideas A failed IHS and gap not filled!

Continue to hold our short position and looking to add should the opportunity arise. Tuesday price action created a bearish hammer candlestick and despite a heaving selling day, price found support at 753.50 and managed to open to retest the 20 dma at 758 thus could give bulls some confidence today. We are watching the upper BB line heading lower while other indicators may signal a change in the direction. A break below 753.5 will target 740 areas to close the gap and sellers could use this momentum to target the lower BB at 730.


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