Precious Metal Trade Idea – 30th April

Bullion Daily

happy yellen

The following information is a guideline (trading plan) and should not be treated as financial advice. Not advice but banter and active in sharing trade ideas via twitter @sugardaddyFED

Trading Instruments:  Gold                                                                                          Trade Size: 2 contracts

Technical Indicator Daily Chart Reasoning
Support Zones 1173/1183 & 1193 Not ruling out a possible retest of 1193
Resistance Zones 1211 and 1222 Need to close above 100 ma and 200 ma
RSI Indicator 52.11 A neutral zone
MACD Lack of momentum
Bollinger Bands 1216 and 1184 Stabilising
Candlesticks Negative Close (Open 1211.65 Close 1204.61)
Trade Ideas Target 200 ma at 1223.45

Sell off in the US dollar mark the beginning of a retreat by the dollar bulls. In addition, the “Sell in May and Go Away” seems to have hit the equity market pretty hard. It has been months that dip buying and what we like to call “Super V” recovery seems to be the norm. Every dip in US and European market has been bought and equity fever has produced many so called trading experts – even the banana sellers in China could do it too! All those easy money has to find yields and we are looking at a certain market phase of sudden euphoria and now a slight panic.

However, the yellow metal failed to perform and rather in its “transitory” mode after the release of the FOMC statement. Both currency and equity market seems to outrun the release of the statement and it is rather obvious that the Federal Reserve is in no state to do any rate hike in June and possible delay is envisaged. Lack of interest in the precious metal complex continues to dampen any real price action that could substantially lead to a break out of the price range.

In the short term, gold can continue higher as long as it trade above 1193 level and next ideal target is the resistance at 1224 level. Only a clean break and close above 1224 will allow the bulls to charge higher.

Trading Instruments:  Silver                                                                                         Trade Size: 2 contracts

Technical Indicator Daily Chart Reasoning
Support Zones 16.00/16.28 and 16.50 Fib retracement what was resistance now support
Resistance Zones 16.87/17.00 and 17.21 50 % Fib, then the psychological level then the 200 ma
RSI Indicator 54.79 Regained above 50. Moving higher?
Stochastic Fast and Slow Slow line rising, need both lines to thread higher
Bollinger Bands 16.99 and 15.67 Stabilising
Candlesticks Negative Close (Open 16.59 Close 16.55)
Trade Ideas On course after FOMC = Strength?

Silver continue to consolidate in the symmetrical triangle formation, posting lower high and higher low. Breakout in either direction is possible but need a solid price action to validate this. If Silver can trade and close above the 200 dma currently at 17.21 then it may stand a good chance to retest January high at 18.45. Only a decisive break and close above 17.00 and 17.45 will give bulls the confidence to retest higher.

On the other hand, a break below 15.50 will play the Short scenario with possible target of previous low and potentially much lower.

As long as it is still trading in the triangle, prices can whipsaw and only a clear breakout will dictate the next direction. Will we see a solid move in May? Bear in mind that last 2 years May 2013 and 2014 saw silver dipped lower before it resume higher in June!

Trading Instruments:  Platinum                                                                                  Trade Size: 2 contracts

Technical Indicator Reasoning
Support Zones 1086 and 1117 March low and April low
Resistance Zones 1184 and 1186.6 100 ma and 50% fib of January high
RSI Indicator 50.5 Breaking below 50?
Stochastic Fast and Slow Bearish Divergence  continues
Bollinger Bands 1177 and 1127 Stabilising
Candlesticks Negative close (Open 1154.2 Close 1150.5)
Trade Ideas Corrective rally – shorting opportunities?

Short initiated at 1162 with a stop at 1172 target the following area 1138 and 1128.

The upside is limited due to the down trend line (weekly chart) and on that basis, further weakness is envisage. As long as prices trade below the 50% Fib retracement from January high 1186.60 then sellers have control. We continue to look for a corrective pullback higher and look to sell on rallies and only a break above 1186.6 will invalidate this stance.

Trading Instruments:  Palladium                                                                                Trade Size: 2 contracts

Technical Indicator Reasoning
Support Zones 746/754 and 761 Low hit at 752.50 (double bottom) and previous Fib is back in play
Resistance Zones 782/786.40 and 799.97 100 ma, previous high and 200 ma holding upside
RSI Indicator 55.94 Heading higher
Stochastic Fast and Slow Fast line above slow line
Bollinger Bands 787 and 749.76 Rising BB could indicate more upside?
Candlesticks Positive close (Open 774.5 Close 779.5)
Trade Ideas Ready to lift off?  200 ma in sight

Palladium has moved higher and took out the retest level we mentioned at 777. Now it needs to break and close above the 100 ma at 782 to give it more impetus to move higher. Key levels at 745 to 755 area is now strong support zone and only a break below that will give the sellers more control. Palladium could resume higher after it rebound off the 50% retracement high of 786.50. Next target for Palladium to conquer are top of the BB line 787 and the 200 ma at 799.97 followed by 846??

Meanwhile, the 4 hourly charts indicate strong range trading from the start of April. Should this continue, expect sellers to appear between 782 to 790 levels to target 750 to 760 levels as limit. We are waiting for further confirmation on how Palladium will react.

Trade Palladium with care as this metal does not play by the rule.

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Precious Metal Trade Idea – 29th April

Bullion Daily

USD time bomb

The following information is a guideline (trading plan) and should not be treated as financial advice. Not advice but banter and active in sharing trade ideas via twitter @sugardaddyFED

Trading Instruments:  Gold                                                                                          Trade Size: 2 contracts

Technical Indicator Daily Chart Reasoning
Support Zones 1193/1199 & 1205 April high & low Fib retracement
Resistance Zones 1211 and 1223 Need to close above 100 ma and 200 ma
RSI Indicator 53.65 A neutral zone
MACD Lack of momentum
Bollinger Bands 1216 and 1184 Stabilising
Candlesticks Positive Close (Open 1199.83 Close 1211.65)
Trade Ideas Target 200 ma at 1223.45

As mentioned before, the all-time high equity market and a strong dollar do not go hand in hand. We are expecting this trend to continue – a trend where every FOMC meeting will rock the confidence in both (equity and USD) bull camps. The benefactor in this game is gold as hot money flow in to take advantage of the cheaper alternative.

Gold took out 1209 resistance easily and broke above 1214 but then profit taking kicks in as the FOMC draw closer. Expect a period of consolidation with increased volatility pre and post FOMC as traders take position on the dollar. Over the last two weeks, we have seen continued weakness in the dollar camp but all could change should a hawkish remark is made.

In the short term, gold can continue higher as long as it trade above 1193 level and next ideal target is the resistance at 1224 level. Only a clean break and close above 1224 will allow the bulls to charge higher. Take note that price action does not move in a straight line and anything can happen today with a dump and pump or pump then dump scenario.

Trading Instruments:  Silver                                                                                         Trade Size: 2 contracts

Technical Indicator Daily Chart Reasoning
Support Zones 16.00/16.28 and 16.50 Fib retracement what was resistance now support
Resistance Zones 16.67 and 17.00 Next resistance are 200 wma
RSI Indicator 52.73 Regained just above 50
Stochastic Fast and Slow Slow line rising, need both lines to thread higher
Bollinger Bands 16.99 and 15.67 BB moved lower – Further weakness?
Candlesticks Positive Close (Open 16.33 Close 16.59)
Trade Ideas Side line for now due to FOMC

Short term price action from Silver is rather positive. Next line of resistance to overcome is the 200 wma at 16.67 and then the upper Bollinger band which currently sits on the downtrend line of January and April high at 16.87 could find sellers. Only a decisive break and close above 17.00 and 17.45 will give bulls the confidence to retest higher.

Our stance is clear that a weak global demand for Silver due to lack of economic growth will stifle any rise in prices. The odd event of higher prices are often speculative positioning and safe haven bid and with that in mind we may look out for selling opportunities. In the short term, any rise in price could be subject to weakness in the US dollar or possible correction in the equity market.

We are looking to reduce risk by placing only 1 short order at 16.87 stop 17.37 with a target at 16.07. Should price pull back to 16.57 then look to raise stop to B/E.

Trading Instruments:  Platinum                                                                                  Trade Size: 2 contracts

Technical Indicator Reasoning
Support Zones 1112 Set a low of 1116 and 1117. Higher low since the start of 2015 but lower high too
Resistance Zones 1185 100 ma
RSI Indicator 51.8 Neutral again
Stochastic Fast and Slow Bearish Divergence  continues
Bollinger Bands 1177 and 1127 Stabilising
Candlesticks Positive close (Open 1141.7 Close 1154.2)
Trade Ideas Corrective rally – shorting opportunities?

We are not denying the above observation that Platinum has created higher low but lower high. However, daily Platinum chart has successfully created a lower high and lower low since the beginning of April.

The upside is limited due to the down trend line (weekly chart) and on that basis, further weakness is envisage. As long as prices trade below the 100 ma 1186.11 then sellers have control. In addition, the Fib retracement of January high to March low also indicates rejection from 50% at 1186.60 and we are expecting a retest of 38.2% which stands at 1162.91. This area will be an interest for us to short Platinum with a stop at 1173 and target 1100.

We continue to look for a corrective pullback higher and look to sell on rallies. Further weakness is still in store given that the indicators are just turning lower but we expect a small pullback possibly retest 1142 and a high of 1160.

Trading Instruments:  Palladium                                                                                Trade Size: 2 contracts

Technical Indicator Reasoning
Support Zones 746/754 and 761 Low hit at 752.50 (double bottom) and previous Fib is back in play
Resistance Zones 783 and 800.38 100 ma and 200 ma holding upside
RSI Indicator 52.4 Neutral
Stochastic Fast and Slow Fast line above slow line
Bollinger Bands 786 and 746 Lower BB moved higher
Candlesticks Negative close (Open 774.1 Close 774.5) another doji
Trade Ideas Gap not filled and another attempt at HIS?

Afraid, our stance remains the same on Palladium. Key levels at 745 to 755 area is now strong support zone and only a break below that will give the sellers more control. Meanwhile, Palladium could resume higher after it rebound off the 50% retracement high of 786.50. With that in mind, we cannot rule out a retest of 777, top of the BB line 786 or the 200 ma at 800.84.

Meanwhile, the 4 hourly charts indicate strong range trading from the start of April. Should this continue, expect sellers to appear between 782 to 790 levels to target 750 to 760 levels as limit. With that in mind, we are placing a sell order at 785 stop 793.5 and target 755.

Given that it is range trading between 790 and 750, only a breakout will determine the next direction on Palladium. Only a break below 746 may indicate further weakness is in store but if it closes anything above 790 and daily 200 ma at 800.80 will set a buy signal.

Trade Palladium with care as this metal does not play by the rule.

Precious Metal Trade Idea – 28th April

Bullion Daily

gold bear

The following information is a guideline (trading plan) and should not be treated as financial advice. Not advice but banter and active in sharing trade ideas via twitter @sugardaddyFED

Trading Instruments:  Gold                                                                                          Trade Size: 2 contracts

Technical Indicator Daily Chart Reasoning
Support Zones 1193 / 1183 and 1173 Support at 1173 held and prices bounced higher
Resistance Zones 1211 and 1223 Need to close above 100 ma and 200 ma
RSI Indicator 52.59 A neutral zone
MACD Lack of momentum
Bollinger Bands 1214 and 1185 Lower BB line continue to rise, providing support
Candlesticks Positive Close (Open 1179.89 Close 1199.83)
Trade Ideas Range Trading again

Last Friday huge sell-off was temporary as yesterday price action indicates short covering in a fashion that turned heads. US dollar weakness and sell-off in the equity market after the new all-time high has funnelled some of the money away to safe haven assets. Given the lack of market interests in the yellow metal, a sudden spike in volume is sufficient to change the course. Bargain hunters appear within the lower Bollinger Band area and given that it is not a corrective move, the break above 100 and 200 ma on the 4 hour chart has given buyers some comfort to test higher prices. Once again, sellers came in at the well-known 1207 – 1209 area which will be an important resistance as this range trading continues.

Our observation indicates that gold is not ready to get out of this comfort zone (1173 – 1209) and both bulls and bears lack conviction. Catalyst for another big move may soon appear from the release of US economic data this week. The US dollar is testing key support line and its recent weakness is no doubt another indication that Federal Reserve is not ready to hike interest rate – thus a dovish Fed is expected.

Gold could be gearing up for a break in either direction. Depending on the correction in the US dollar and equity market, safe haven bids are the current play as smart money finds gold a cheaper alternative albeit on a temporary time-scale.

Trading Instruments:  Silver                                                                                         Trade Size: 2 contracts

Technical Indicator Daily Chart Reasoning
Support Zones 16.00 and 16.19 The low came in at 15.59
Resistance Zones 1650/16.67 and 17.00 Next resistance are the 100 and 200 ma
RSI Indicator 52.04 Regained just above 50
Stochastic Fast and Slow Breakout higher
Bollinger Bands 17.05 and 15.63 BB moved lower – Further weakness
Candlesticks Positive Close (Open 15.77 Close 16.33)
Trade Ideas Looking to Short the metal on a move higher

We missed out to go long on Silver by .04 as we set 15.55 while the low was 15.59. As mentioned above, Silver prices caught buyers and prices trade above psychological level of 16.00 and took out 20 ma at 16.20 and 50 ma at 16.32 but resistance came in only at 100 ma at 16.50.

Our stance is clear that a weak global demand for Silver due to lack of economic growth will stifle any rise in prices. The odd event of higher prices are often speculative positioning and safe haven bid and with that in mind we may look out for selling opportunities. In the short term, any rise in price could be subject to weakness in the US dollar or possible correction in the equity market.

Only a break and close above 17.45 will give bulls the opportunity to ride the market higher. Should it break below 14.45 then it will created big damage on the weekly and monthly trend line.

Trading Instruments:  Platinum                                                                                  Trade Size: 2 contracts

Technical Indicator Reasoning
Support Zones 1112 Price did not revisit 1112 but set a low of 1116 and 1117
Resistance Zones 1151 Did not close above 1151
RSI Indicator 46.89 Bearish but not oversold yet
Stochastic Fast and Slow Bearish Divergence  continues
Bollinger Bands 1177 and 1126 Stabilising
Candlesticks Positive close (Open 1121.5 Close 1141.7)
Trade Ideas Corrective rally – shorting opportunities?

The daily Platinum chart has successfully created a lower high and lower low since the beginning of April. The upside is limited due to the down trend line (weekly chart) and on that basis, further weakness is envisage. As long as prices trade below the 100 ma 1186.11 then sellers have control. In addition, the Fib retracement of January high to March low also indicates rejection from 50% at 1186.60 and we are expecting a retest of 38.2% which stands at 1162.91. This area will be an interest for us to short Platinum with a stop at 1173 and target 1100.

We continue to look for a corrective pullback higher and look to sell on rallies. Further weakness is still in store given that the indicators are just turning lower but we expect a small pullback possibly retest 1142 and a high of 1160.

A break and close above 1136 may give this pullback further leg to test higher and only if it closes above the weekly 20 ma at 1182.57 then it will give rooms for buyers to enter. Meanwhile, the Bears might try to take out the weekly lower BB at 1102 or even retest previous low at 1086.20.

Trading Instruments:  Palladium                                                                                Trade Size: 2 contracts

Technical Indicator Reasoning
Support Zones 746/754 and 761 Low hit at 752.50 (double bottom) and previous Fib is back in play
Resistance Zones 783 200 ma holding upside
RSI Indicator 51.92 Higher
Stochastic Fast and Slow Fast line above slow line
Bollinger Bands 786 and 743 BB fast converging for a Breakout?
Candlesticks Positive close (Open 773.4 Close 774)
Trade Ideas Gap not filled and another attempt at HIS?

A corrective pullback has happened on the bounce from 752.50. The metal is adamant that it wants to make a point that it will not fill the bloody gap at 740. Instead, the 745 to 755 area is now strong support zone and only a break below that will give the sellers more control. Meanwhile, Palladium could resume higher after it rebound off the 50% retracement high of 786.50. With that in mind, we cannot rule out a retest of 777, top of the BB line 786 or the 200 ma at 800.84.

Given that it is range trading between 790 and 750, only a breakout will determine the next direction on Palladium. Only a break of 746 may indicate further weakness is in store but if it closes anything above 790 and daily 200 ma at 800.80 will set a buy signal.

Trade Palladium with care as this metal does not play by the rule.

Gold, Silver, Platinum & Palladium Weekly View – Dollar Dependent!

Precious Metal – Dollar Dependent

images

As we come to the end of April, we would like to remind our readers to stay cautious over the course of next week impending release of key economic data. We are also entering the month of May (Sell in May and Go Away) resonates again but where will that apply? Similar factors that we take into considerations are the strong dollar, deflation and rock bottom commodities market, all time high stock market, ongoing low interest rate and increasing concern in the bond market.

Starting with China current economy – hard landing has been evaded somehow but its existing policies comes at a great cost. We are seeing how China communist government is applying capitalism in the new normal fashion. Increasing debt level in its current stage is no problem since it has that capacity. Meanwhile, European leaders continue in their battle to love or loathe Greece. As a problem child, Greece leaders are playing a strong card – since there is nothing more to lose, they could enter negotiations with their creditors with threats. Neither side are ready to soften their stance thus no real solutions here as further deadlines are extended.

Meanwhile, the US dollar is softening as we draw closer to a potential rate hike in June. Previous economic data has certainly thrown a spin at the dollar bulls and we see increasing volatility in the market. Only time will tell when the Federal Reserve is ready for the minimal rate hike which many top hedge fund managers warned as a ticking time bomb.

Gold Technical Outlook

Weekly Chart

After much hesitation, gold broke lower after rounds of fertile ground to break higher failed. Bulls failed to capitalise on the weaker dollar and correction in the equity market. Instead, price action has been stifled in a tight range and adds negative sentiment to the prospect of holding the non-yielding yellow metal. Weekly chart shows how price action is within a triangle down trend range and we noticed that the pattern often resonates in the same way. Somehow, this give us an insight with a possible view that April and May (possibly 1142 will hold) often lead to lower prices followed by a correction rally from June, July and ended in August (possibly as high as 1260).

Trade: No additional positions for now and could swing a Long trade if allowed. NOTE TARGET CHANGED TO 1173.5
Position Valid Date Price Action Stop Loss Target Results
SHORT 20th – 24th 1177 Live 1188 1173.5 (1162)
LONG 27th – 1st 1166 Order Placed 1142 1266
20 WMA 50 WMA 100 WMA
1213 (+/-) 1238 (-2) 1270 (-2)

Weekly Gold

Silver Technical Outlook

Weekly Chart

Noticed on the weekly chart how silver has created higher low and lower high. It has also break out of the long term down trend line but trading in a potential bear trap (symmetrical triangle pattern often suggest continuation of the trend). We are not ruling out lower prices could happen in the next few weeks but are wary at the extent of the selling that may dissipates. All eyes are on the US dollar and how Gold will react since Silver will follow its reaction. Should the June rate hike failed to materialise, dollar weakness should be supportive factor for silver to test higher prices.

Trade: Placed a risky long position as a contrarian trade. Valid for this week only.
Position Valid Date Price Action Stop Loss Target Results
SHORT 20th – 24th 15.95 Live 15.95 (16.35) 15.60 (15.55)
LONG 27th – 1st 15.50 Order Placed 15.10 16.35
20 WMA 50 WMA 100 WMA
16.52 (-8) 17.03 (-8) 18.30 (-7)

Weekly Silver

Weekly chart – a rising RSI with prices potentially testing higher numbers

Platinum Technical Outlook

Weekly Chart

The weekly chart shows a strong rejection to break out of the current down trend line. With that, we will not rule out that any attempt to 1150 area is merely a corrective rally which we look to sell at strength. Should weakness continue then the lower Bollinger Band at 1100 is the next ideal target with the previous low of 1086.2 as the next target.

Trade: No Trades.
Position Valid Date Price Action Stop Loss Target Results
Order Placed
20 WMA 50 WMA 100 WMA
1186 (-5) 1294 (-6) 1358 (-4)

Weekly Platinum

Weekly Chart – Trend line is so important here and Platinum continue to trade in this range as the bear resume its rout.

Palladium Technical Outlook

Weekly Chart

We took a big hit on the long on Palladium that did not work in our favour. Despite posting a strong hammer candlestick, price action over last week was bearish given the selloff in the commodities. We admit Palladium is a difficult market to trade in and will take the side line for now. Price has held again at 750 areas and it is not ready to close the gap at 740. Should price test 740 areas, we may consider a long position then.

Trade: No trades. Valid for this week only.
Position Valid Date Price Action Stop Loss Target Results
LONG 20th – 24th 766 Order Placed 808 759 -7
LONG 20th – 24th 786 Order Placed 824 759 -27
20 WMA 50 WMA 100 WMA
783 (-1) 808 (+/-) 772(+1)

Weekly Palladium

Weekly Chart – RSI holding on support – waiting for short term time frame for more confirmation.

This article is written according to the author’s views and by no means indicates investment purpose. Opinions expressed at Sharps Pixley Ltd are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Sharps Pixley Ltd or its management, shareholders, affiliates and subsidiaries. Sharps Pixley Ltd has not verified the accuracy of any claim or statement made by any independent writer and is reserved as their own and Sharps Pixley Ltd is not accountable for their input. Any opinions, research, analysis, prices or other information contained on this website, by Sharps Pixley Ltd, its employees, partners or contributors, is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. Sharps Pixley Ltd will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. The data contained on this website is not necessarily real-time or accurate. 

Precious Metal Trade Idea – 24th April

Bullion Daily

images

The following information is a guideline (trading plan) and should not be treated as financial advice.

Trading Instruments:  Gold                                                                                          Trade Size: 2 contracts

Technical Indicator Daily Chart Reasoning
Support Zones 1193 / 1183 and 1173 As long as gold trades above 1183 it can try higher
Resistance Zones 1198 and 1212 Need to reclaim 20 ma and 100 ma
RSI Indicator 47.5 Not oversold yet
MACD Lack of momentum
Bollinger Bands 1214 and 1183 Stabilising for a breakout?
Candlesticks Positive Close (Open 1188.96 Close 1193.78) Selling outweigh Buying days
Trade Ideas Breaking out

After it found support at the daily BB line 1183, gold regained confidence to trade higher in a corrective move. On the hourly chart, it managed to retrace to 50% retracement level and hit resistance of 200 ma at 1198. This morning it tested to resume higher again but failed at 100 ma resistance just below 1196 – which suggest that the corrective move is weak and further weakness could be around the corner.

Despite that, we will not discount gold price volatility which could have its explosive session in the 2nd half of the afternoon (UK time zone) when we have US Durable data to digest. The Dollar remains weak but somehow found buyers after much selling and short covering in the Euro and other currencies.

Technically, price is still trading in a tight symmetrical triangle range of 1201 and 1183. Break of either side will force quite possibly a big 20 to 40 dollar move. Key levels to watch today for gold is 1183 support and 1201 resistance. Break on either one of those will set a large scale move and that depends how the dollar move. We will be watching the close on gold today as it is set to post a 3rd bearish candlestick on the weekly chart.

Trading Instruments:  Silver                                                                                         Trade Size: 2 contracts

Technical Indicator Daily Chart Reasoning
Support Zones 15.69 and 15.56 May test 15.56
Resistance Zones 16.20/16.56/16.60 and 17.45 Layer of resistance from 20 ma to 50 to 100
RSI Indicator 39.07 Bearish but not yet oversold
Stochastic Fast and Slow Hovering at the lower level
Bollinger Bands 17.10 and 15.66 BB moved lower – Further weakness
Candlesticks Positive Close (Open 15.83 Close 15.89)
Trade Ideas Looking to place a risky buy should it test support at 15.55

The outlook on Silver remains dim and demand for the white metal has suffered a setback due to lack of global growth and demand. Once again, we raise our reminder that Silver prices are erratic and moved in a big range so cautious trading with tight and guaranteed stop loss is highly advised.

Price action on Silver has been limited and the indicator showed that selling any rallies are still the way to trade. However, we also fancy a contrarian trade to buy Silver should it find support at the trend line at 15.55 for a corrective move. To neutralise this weakness, Silver need to trade above 16.60 followed by the daily 200 MA at 16.73 before any reversal trend could be set in place. Only a break and close above 17.45 will give bulls the opportunity to ride the market higher.

Only a break below 15.12 will damage the weekly and monthly trend line.

Placed a long at 15.55 with a 20 point stop loss to target 15.85, 16.05 and 16.435 offers a great RR (raise stop to BE when we reach 1st target).

Trading Instruments:  Platinum                                                                                  Trade Size: 2 contracts

Technical Indicator Reasoning
Support Zones 1112 and 1124 March 2015 low at 1112 could be next
Resistance Zones 1151 Need to reclaim 20, 50 and 100 ma
RSI Indicator 41.73 Bearish but not oversold yet
Stochastic Fast and Slow Bearish Divergence  continues
Bollinger Bands 1178 and 1123 Stabilising
Candlesticks Positive close (Open 1131 Close 1135)
Trade Ideas Selling pressure abating?

We continue to look for a corrective pullback to trade higher but will also look to sell on rallies. Further weakness is still in store given that the indicators are just turning lower but we expect a small pullback possibly retest 1142 and a high of 1160.

A break and close above 1136 may give this pullback further leg to test higher numbers but any pullbacks are selling opportunities in the sellers’ market. Meanwhile, the Bears might try to take out the weekly lower BB at 1102 or even retest previous low at 1086.20.

We have covered all our short positions in profit – flat and waiting for next short entry or corrective pullback opportunity.

Trading Instruments:  Palladium                                                                                Trade Size: 2 contracts

Technical Indicator Reasoning
Support Zones 746/754 and 761 Low hit at 752.50 (double bottom)
Resistance Zones 758/778 and 785 Several 20, 50 and 100 ma
RSI Indicator 50.37 Could turn higher to neutral 50
Stochastic Fast and Slow Fast line attempting higher but rejected
Bollinger Bands 789 and 732 Rising BB again?
Candlesticks Positive close (Open 756.7 Close 769.6)
Trade Ideas Gap not filled and IHS Failed again.

A corrective pullback has happened on the bounce from 752.50. The metal is adamant that it wants to make a point that it will not fill the bloody gap at 740. Instead, the 745 to 755 area is now strong support zone and only a break below that will give the sellers more control. Meanwhile, Palladium could resume higher after it rebound off the 50% retracement high of 786.50. With that in mind, we cannot rule out a retest of 777, top of the BB line 788 or the 200 ma at 802. Only a break of 746 may indicate further weakness is in store.

We would like to add also that the 4 hour chart may suggest the end of the corrective move after the sell-off, after hitting 50% retracement area at 796.40 and may suffice a small short position with a stop at 780 (risk 10 points) to target 760. It is not offering a great RR but it is still a short term opportunity.

Precious Metal Trade Idea – 23rd April

Bullion Daily

Game-8-boring-draw

The following information is a guideline (trading plan) and should not be treated as financial advice.

Trading Instruments:  Gold                                                                                          Trade Size: 2 contracts

Technical Indicator Daily Chart Reasoning
Support Zones 1193 / 1183 and 1173 Broke below 1193 retest 1183
Resistance Zones 1209 / 1213 and 1224 Failure to break 1209 for the 3rd time
RSI Indicator 46.12 Bearish
Stochastic Fast and Slow Bearish. Fast line broke lower
Bollinger Bands 1214 and 1183 Hit lower BB
Candlesticks Negative Close (Open 1201.86 Close 1188.96)
Trade Ideas Breakout and consolidating

If we are playing chess then Gold has finally made a move after hesitating for a long while. Yesterday’s price action suggested that Bulls gave up after repetitive failure to move higher despite fertile grounds such as a weaker US dollar, Grexit uncertainty and a correction in the equity market. Technically, price is still trading in a tight symmetrical triangle range of 1209 and 1183. Break of either side will force quite possibly a big 20 to 40 dollar move.

Given that all the economic and geo-political risks have been priced in, gold bulls may soon run out of luck. Unless we have another bad set of US economic data which may instil further weakness into the US dollar, then brace for more downside risk.

We continue to watch for US data coming out this afternoon with New Home Sales, US Markit Manufacturing and the all-important Durable Goods Orders this coming Friday which may set the next direction. Our weekly trading view also includes our long term take on gold trades as follows: – https://gbulliontimes.wordpress.com/

Trading Instruments:  Silver                                                                                         Trade Size: 2 contracts

Technical Indicator Daily Chart Reasoning
Support Zones 15.72 and 15.56 Tested 78.60 at 15.72. Price trading below previous support now resistance. next is 15.56
Resistance Zones 16.20/16.56/16.60 and 17.45 Layer of resistance
RSI Indicator 39.25 Bearish
Stochastic Fast and Slow Hovering at the lower level
Bollinger Bands 17.15 and 15.72 BB moved lower – more selling ahead?
Candlesticks Negative Close (Open 16.01 Close 15.83)
Trade Ideas Took out support at 15.89, 15.72 and next is 15.56?

Afraid we have not much to add on the Silver view other than stay cautious as we are expecting various US economic data. As another reminder, Silver prices are erratic and moved in a big range so cautious trading with tight and guaranteed stop loss is highly advised.

Silver continue to trade below what was previously support now resistance level and current price action suggest further weakness could prevail. To neutralise this weakness, Silver need to trade above 16.60 followed by the daily 200 MA at 16.73 before any reversal trend could be set in place. Only a break and close above 17.45 will give bulls the opportunity to ride the market higher.

Meanwhile, bears are still in full control and have the opportunity to test 15.72 and 15.56 where we can find some good support. Only a break below 15.12 will damage the weekly and monthly trend line.

We will not rule out a retest of 15.72 and 15.56 for good support. Enter a long at 15.55 with a 20 point stop loss to target 15.85, 16.05 and 16.435 offers a great RR (raise stop to BE when we reach 1st target). Should the long position fail, we then look for previous low and the possibility to short Silver on the break and close of 15.55.

Trading Instruments:  Platinum                                                                                  Trade Size: 2 contracts

Technical Indicator Reasoning
Support Zones 1147/1136 and 1124 1124 taken out with a low of 1122.50
Resistance Zones 1155/1186 and 1196 To resume higher it needs to reclaim 1166
RSI Indicator 42.10 Broke below 50 – bearish
Stochastic Fast and Slow Bearish Divergence  continues
Bollinger Bands 1176 and 1123 BB moved lower
Candlesticks Negative close (Open 1148.1 Close 1131)
Trade Ideas Indicators suggest selling pressure

Platinum took out the lower BB line and marked a low at 1122.50. Further weakness is still in store given that the indicators are just turning lower but we expect a small pullback possibly retest 1142 and a high of 1160.

A break and close above 1136 may give this pullback further leg to test higher numbers but any pullbacks are selling opportunities in the sellers’ market. Meanwhile, the Bears might try to take out the weekly lower BB at 1103 or even retest previous low at 1086.20.

We have covered all our short positions in profit – flat and waiting for next short entry opportunity.

Trading Instruments:  Palladium                                                                                Trade Size: 2 contracts

Technical Indicator Reasoning
Support Zones 746/754 and 761 Low hit at 752.50 (double bottom)
Resistance Zones 758/778 and 785
RSI Indicator 46.60 Could turn higher to neutral 50
Stochastic Fast and Slow Fast line attempting higher
Bollinger Bands 788 and 729 BB stabilising
Candlesticks Negative close (Open 770.6 Close 756.7)
Trade Ideas Gap not filled and IHS Failed again.

Somehow, Palladium Bull Run is not over yet. It is true that it has made a negative day but it managed to rebound off the 50% retracement high of 786.50. With that in mind, we cannot rule out a retest of 777, top of the BB line 788 or the 200 dma at 802

One underlying pattern here is that a buy or sell seems to trigger on the 4 hr BB line and should that pattern continues, we will not rule out that a short term rebound in Palladium is underway. Despite that, a break of 746 may indicate further weakness is in store.

We are waiting for a higher pullback to short the metal on any corrective rallies to target 766, 752 and 740 again. Potential H&S formation on the 4 hour chart cannot be rule out! For today, we are looking for a corrective pullback higher to warrant a short position.

Precious Metal Trade Idea – 22nd April

Watching d market

Bullion Daily

The following information is a guideline (trading plan) and should not be treated as financial advice.

Trading Instruments:  Gold                                                                                          Trade Size: 2 contracts

Technical Indicator Daily Chart Reasoning
Support Zones 1193 / 1183 and 1173 Lower high and higher low
Resistance Zones 1209 / 1213 and 1224 Failure to break 1209 for the 3rd time
RSI Indicator 51.69 Neutral
Stochastic Fast and Slow No man’s land
Bollinger Bands 1214 and 1186 Looming Breakout
Candlesticks Positive Close (Open 1196 Close 1201)
Trade Ideas Range trading

In No Man’s Land or LOST is befitting the current XAU/USD market. Lack of interest from market players continues to besiege price action in this tight range. As we mentioned a couple of weeks ago, there is a potential breakout in the horizon but no one knows exactly the direction of this break. Early morning, we are seeing further US dollar weakness that did not transpire into higher prices. Sell off in the equity market has not helped either – the catalysts for higher prices at the moment is safe haven buying.

Given that all the economic and geo-political risks have been priced in, gold bulls may soon run out of luck should price break out of the lower range. Gold continue to trade in the range of $ 1177 and $ 1224 – with anything between that as range trading.

Watch for several US data coming out this afternoon with Existing home sales, New Home Sales on Thursday and the all-important Durable Goods Orders this coming Friday which may set the next direction. Our weekly trading view also includes our long term take on gold trades as follows: – https://gbulliontimes.wordpress.com/

Trading Instruments:  Silver                                                                                         Trade Size: 2 contracts

Technical Indicator Daily Chart Reasoning
Support Zones 15.72 and 15.56 78.60 at 15.72 will be last defence. Price trading below previous support now resistance.
Resistance Zones 16.20/16.56/16.60 and 17.45 Need 16.60 for a move higher
RSI Indicator 42.26 Bearish
Stochastic Fast and Slow Hovering at the lower level
Bollinger Bands 17.19 and 15.82 Lower BB moved lower – bearish
Candlesticks Positive Close (Open 15.95 Close 16.01)
Trade Ideas Heading to test support at 15.89, 15.72 and 15.56?

Silver continue to trade below what was previously support now resistance level and current price action suggest further weakness could prevail. To neutralise this weakness, Silver need to trade above 16.60 followed by the daily 200 MA at 16.73 before any reversal trend could be set in place. Only a break and close above 17.45 will give bulls the opportunity to ride the market higher.

Meanwhile, bears are still in full control and have the opportunity to test 15.72 and 15.56 where we can find some good support. Only a break below 15.12 will damage the weekly and monthly trend line.

Meanwhile, Silver could retrace higher but subject to further selling should dollar bulls gain buying momentum again. We will not rule out a retest of $ 15.72 and $ 15.56 for good support. Enter a long at $ 15.60 with a 25 point stop loss to target $ 16.40 offers a great RR (reward at 80 points).

Trading Instruments:  Platinum                                                                                  Trade Size: 2 contracts

Technical Indicator Reasoning
Support Zones 1147/1136 and 1124 Tested 1147 with 1136 tested too. 1124 next?
Resistance Zones 1155/1186 and 1196 Failed to break above 1186 – Bearish
RSI Indicator 49.57 Broke below 50 – bearish
Stochastic Fast and Slow Bearish Divergence  continues
Bollinger Bands 1176 and 1128 Stabilising
Candlesticks Negative close (Open 1148.4 Close 1147.9)
Trade Ideas Indicators suggest selling pressure

The sell-off has accelerated and we cannot rule out further weakness to retest the lower Bollinger Band at 1128. That level will coincide well with 61.8% retracement 1124 of previous high made on April 2015. The Stochastic indicator continues to flash bearish divergence and recent price action has trade outside the trend line. With RSI falling below 50 and the MACD line about to cross lower, we continue to be in the bear camp.

We have trimmed one of our short position at 1158 (stop raised to Break Even) and let the last contract run to target 1136 (reward 22 points).

Trading Instruments:  Palladium                                                                                Trade Size: 2 contracts

Technical Indicator Reasoning
Support Zones 746/754 and 761 Low hit at 762.00 and rebounding
Resistance Zones 758/778 and 785 Took out all on Monday but gave it all back
RSI Indicator 49.60 Waiting for further bearish confirmation
Stochastic Fast and Slow Rolling over to bearish zone
Bollinger Bands 790 and 729 BB stabilising
Candlesticks Positive close (Open 774.1 Close 770.6)
Trade Ideas Gap not filled and IHS Failed again.

Palladium need to take out 762 and 752 to suggest further weakness to fill the gap at 740 followed by the lower end of the Bollinger band at 730. We would like to remind our readers that Palladium could consolidate for now but we are wary of a bearish RSI divergence on the 4 hourly chart. Such indication warrants us to short the metal on any corrective rallies to target 766, 752 and 740 again. Potential H&S formation on the 4 hour chart cannot be rule out! For today, we are looking for a corrective pullback higher to warrant a short position.